[Comparison of three-dimensional position of maxillary dentition model treated with two digital transfer methods].

Objective: To compare and evaluate the difference in maxillary dentition position using an anatomical facebow and jaw movement analyzer. Methods: From March to May 2023, 15 medical interns from Yantai Stomatological Hospital were recruited, including 9 males and 6 females, aged 20-25 years. Digital models and plaster models of maxillary dentition were obtained from the 15 medical interns. The anatomical facebow group (AFB) and jaw movement analyzer group (JMA) were used to transfer the position of the maxillary dentition to the virtual articulator. The virtual occlusal articulator module of exocad denture design software was used to measure the inclination angle of the occlusal plane of the two groups, the distance between the mesio-incisal angle of the left maxillary central incisor and the lateral center point of the lateral condylar sphere of the virtual occlusal articulator, the distance between the mesial buccal cusp of the maxillary first molar and the lateral center point of the lateral condyle sphere of the virtual articulator. The same marks (mesial incisor point of left maxillary central incisor and mesial buccal cusp point of both maxillary first molars) were measured in two groups of maxillary dentition, and the root-mean-square error between 3 points was calculated. Results: The occlusal plane inclination angle in AFB group (9.11°±3.85°) was significantly larger than that in JMA group (4.94°±2.69°) (t=10.45, P<0.001). There were significant differences between AFB and JMA groups. The distances from the mesial cusp of the left first molar to the lateral center of the left condylar, from the mesial cusp of the left maxillary central incisor to the lateral center of the left condylar[(91.75±3.05), (129.09±4.60) mm]were significantly smaller than those in the JMA group[(95.68±5.45), (132.41±5.64) mm](t=-4.48, P=0.001; t=-4.21, P=0.001). In both groups of models, the distance of the mesial cusp of the left maxillary central incisor was (8.81±2.56) mm, and the distance between mesial buccal cusp of maxillary left first molar was (7.56±2.49) mm, the distance between mesial buccal cusp of maxillary right first molar was (7.13±2.77) mm; the root mean square error was (7.93± 2.94) mm. Compared with 0, the difference was statistically significant (t=10.45, P<0.001). Conclusions: There were differences between the two methods (anatomical facebow and the jaw movement analyzer) for transferring the maxillary dentition position to the three-dimensional space position of the virtual articulator.

Reactive cutaneous capillary endothelial proliferation predicted the efficacy of camrelizumab in patients with recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Reactive cutaneous capillary endothelial proliferation (RCCEP), a special adverse event (AE) only observed in patients treated with camrelizumab, was reported to be correlated with the efficacy of camrelizumab in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. This study to analyze the possible correlation between the occurrence of RCCEP and efficacy of camrelizumab in patients with recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC). MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this study, we retrospectively analyzed the efficacy and RCCEP occurrence of camrelizumab in 58 patients with R/M HNSCC in the Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital affiliated to Shanghai JiaoTong University School of Medicine between January 2019 and June 2022. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess the correlation between the occurrence of RCCEP and the survival of enrolled patients, and COX multifactor analysis was adopted to evaluate associated factors that affected the efficacy of camrelizumab immunotherapy. RESULTS: A significant correlation between the incidence of RCCEP and a higher objective response rate was observed in this study (p=0.008). The occurrence of RCCEP was associated with better median overall survival (17.0 months vs. 8.7 months, p<0.0001, HR=5.944, 95% CI:2.097-16.84) and better median progression-free survival (15.1 months vs. 4.0 months, p<0.0001, HR=4.329,95% CI:1.683-11.13). In COX multifactor analysis, RCCEP occurrence was also an independent prognostic factor affecting OS and PFS in patients with R/M HNSCC. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of RCCEP can show a better prognosis, it could be used as a clinical biomarker to predict the efficacy of camrelizumab treatment.

A novel rat-tail model for studying human finger vibration health effects.

It has been hypothesized that the biodynamic responses of the human finger tissues to vibration are among the major stimuli that cause vibration health effects. Furthermore, the finger contact pressure can alter these effects. It is difficult to test these hypotheses using human subjects or existing animal models. The objective of this study was to develop a new rat-tail vibration model to investigate the combined effects of vibration and contact pressure and to identify their relationships with the biodynamic responses. Physically, the new exposure system was developed by adding a loading device to an existing rat-tail model. An analytical model of the rat-tail exposure system was proposed and used to formulate the methods for quantifying the biodynamic responses. A series of tests with six tails dissected from rat cadavers were conducted to test and evaluate the new model. The experimental and modeling results demonstrate that the new model behaves as predicted. Unlike the previous model, the vibration strain and stress of the rat tail does not depend primarily on the vibration response of the tail itself but on that of the loading device. This makes it possible to quantify and control the biodynamic responses conveniently and reliably by measuring the loading device response. This study also identified the basic characteristics of the tail biodynamic responses in the exposure system, which can be used to help design the experiments for studying vibration biological effects.

[The prognostic value of morphological and functional parameters of cardiac magnetic resonance in patients with systemic light chain amyloidosis].

Objective: To investigate the features of morphological and functional parameters of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in patients with systemic light chain (AL) amyloidosis, and the prognostic values of these related parameters. Methods: The data of 97 patients (including 56 males and 41 females, aged 36 to 71 years) with AL amyloidosis from April 2016 to August 2019 in the General Hospital of Eastern Theater Command were retrospectively analyzed. All patients underwent CMR examination. Those patients were divided into survival (n=76) and death groups (n=21) according to the clinical outcomes, and the differences in clinical baseline and CMR parameters between the two groups were analyzed and compared. A smooth curve fitting was used to analyze the association between morphological and functional parameters and extracellular volume (ECV), and Cox regression models were conducted to explore the association between related parameters and mortality. Results: The left ventricular global function index (LVGFI), myocardial contraction fraction (MCF) and stroke volume index (SVI) decreased with increasing ECV [ß (95%CI) was -0.566 (-0.685--0.446), -1.201 (-1.424--0.977), -0.149 (-0.293--0.004), respectively;all P<0.05]. Left ventricular mass index (LVMI), and diastolic left ventricular global peak wall thickness (LVGPWT) increased with increasing ECV [ß(95%CI) was 1.440 (1.142-1.739), 0.190 (0.147-0.233), respectively;both P<0.001]. While left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) began to decrease only at higher amyloid burden (ß=-0.460, 95%CI:-0.639--0.280, P<0.001). The median follow-up time was 39 months (range 2-64 months), and 21 patients died during the follow-up period. The estimated survival rates according to Kaplan-Meier curves at 1, 3, and 5 years were 92.8%, 78.7%, and 77.1%, respectively. MCF<39% (HR=10.266, 95%CI: 4.093-25.747) and LVGFI<26% (HR=9.267, 95%CI: 3.705-23.178) were independent risk factors for death in patients with AL amyloidosis after adjusting for other CMR parameters (P<0.001). Conclusion: Multiple morphologic and functional parameters of CMR vary with the increase of ECV. MCF<39% and LVGFI<26% were independent risk factors for death.

MicroRNA-29a-3p regulates chemosensitivity in hypopharyngeal carcinoma via targeting Cdc42.

INTRODUCTION: Hypopharyngeal carcinoma is one kind of high malignant tumour followed by poor prognosis in head and neck carcinomas. This study aimed to detect miR-29a-3p and Cdc42 in patients with hypopharyngeal carcinoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The expression of miR-29a-3p and Cdc42 mRNA were detected, and the correlation between miR-29a-3p/Cdc42 and clinical stages was investigated. RESULTS: The relative expression of miR-29a-3p in stage II, III and IV hypopharyngeal carcinoma tissues was significantly lower than that of stage I (P< 0.05). The relative expression of Cdc42 mRNA in stage I, III and IV tissues was significantly higher than that of stage I (P< 0.05). The expression of miR-29a-3p in hypopharyngeal carcinoma with lymph node metastasis was significantly lower than that without lymph node metastasis (P = 0.045). CONCLUSION: MiR-29a-3p and Cdc42 mRNA could be potential diagnostic biomarkers of hypopharyngeal carcinoma.

[Susceptibility vessel sign in subacute stroke patients with large vessel occlusion].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the presentation of susceptibility vessel sign (SVS) in subacute stroke patients with large vessel occlusion. METHODS: We collected consecutive stroke patients who were admitted to Peking University First Hospital from December 2017 to August 2019 retrospectively. Those who had intracranial large vessel occlusion and received sensitivity weighted imaging (SWI) within 3 to 14 days after stroke onset were included in our analysis. The diagnosis of large vessel occlusion was based on magnetic resonance angiography (MRA), CT angiography (CTA) or digital subtraction angiography (DSA). The demographic information, clinical characteristics and imaging results were obtained from medical record. The occurrence rates of SVS sign were compared between stroke patients with cardioembolism (CE) and large artery atherosclerosis (LAA). In the sensitivity analysis, we performed a subgroup analysis in those patients who received SWI within 7 to 14 days after stroke onset. We also compared the occurrence rate of SVS sign between the patients with and without atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: A total of 51 patients, 19 females and 32 males, with an average age of (63.04±11.23) years were analyzed in this study. Compared with LAA group, the patients in CE group were older and more likely to have an atrial fibrillation (P < 0.05). There were no significant differences between the CE group and LAA group in gender, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, hyperlipidemia, smoking, or National Institute of Health stroke scale(NIHSS) score at admission. SVS sign was found in 30 patients. Of whom, 3 were in CE group and 27 in LAA group. The occurrence rate of SVS sign was higher in the LAA group than in the CE group significantly (65.9% vs. 30.0%, P=0.039). The subgroup analysis showed that, in the patients who received SWI examination within 7 to 14 days after stroke onset, the differences between the two groups were still statistically significant (0 vs. 72.7%, P=0.006). Another sensitivity analysis showed that, the rate of SVS in the patients with atrial fibrillation was significantly lower than those patients without atrial fibrillation (25% vs. 65.1%, P=0.043). CONCLUSION: In subacute stroke patients, the occurrence rate of SVS sign in CE group was lower than that of LAA group. The significance of SVS sign in the differentiation of stroke subtype needs further validation.

An alternative method for analyzing the slip potential of workers on sloped surfaces.

Slips and falls on sloped roof surfaces remain an important safety issue among construction workers. The slip potential has been conventionally analyzed and assessed primarily based on ground reaction forces, which cannot differentiate the specific roles of each of the force factors (e.g., workers' motions-induced dynamic forces and slope-induced static forces) contributing to the slip potential. Their differentiation may enhance the understanding of the slip mechanisms on the sloped roof surfaces and help develop effective walking and working strategies/tactics to minimize the dangerous slips on the elevated roofs. Hence, the objective of this study is to develop a biodynamic method as an additional tool for analyzing the slip potential of a worker walking or working on sloped roof surfaces. A whole-body biodynamic model is proposed and used to develop the alternative method, in which the slip potential is expressed as an analytical function of its major controlling factors including coefficient of friction, slope angle, and biodynamic forces. Some experimental data available in the literature are used to demonstrate the application of the proposed method. The results suggest that the slope may not change the basic trends of the biodynamic forces, but the slope may affect their magnitudes, which can be explained using the system's energy equation also derived from the whole-body biodynamic model. The analytical results suggest that reducing the body acceleration in uphill direction or the deceleration in downhill direction can reduce the slip potential. 'Zigging' and 'zagging' walking on a sloped surface may also reduce the slip potential, as it reduces the effective slope angle. The proposed biodynamic theory can be used to enhance the safety guidelines not only for roofers but also for people walking on ramps, inclined walkways, and mountain terrains.

A Review of Hand-Arm Vibration Studies Conducted by US NIOSH since 2000.

Studies on hand-transmitted vibration exposure, biodynamic responses, and biological effects were conducted by researchers at the Health Effects Laboratory Division (HELD) of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) during the last 20 years. These studies are systematically reviewed in this report, along with the identification of areas where additional research is needed. The majority of the studies cover the following aspects: (i) the methods and techniques for measuring hand-transmitted vibration exposure; (ii) vibration biodynamics of the hand-arm system and the quantification of vibration exposure; (iii) biological effects of hand-transmitted vibration exposure; (iv) measurements of vibration-induced health effects; (iv) quantification of influencing biomechanical effects; and (v) intervention methods and technologies for controlling hand-transmitted vibration exposure. The major findings of the studies are summarized and discussed.

An investigation of the effectiveness of vibration-reducing gloves for controlling vibration exposures during grinding handheld workpieces.

Prolonged and intensive vibration exposures during the grinding of handheld workpieces may cause hand-arm vibration syndrome. The objectives of this study are to develop an on-the-hand method for evaluating vibration-reducing (VR) gloves, and to determine whether VR gloves can significantly reduce the vibration exposures. A worker holding and pressing a typical workpiece (golf club head) against a grinding wheel or belt in order to shape the workpiece was simulated, and the input vibration and those on the workpiece and hand-arm system were measured. Ten human subjects participated in the experiment. The results demonstrate that VR gloves significantly reduced the vibrations at the palm, hand dorsum, and wrist. The grinding interface condition and hand feed force did not substantially affect glove effectiveness. The use of gloves slightly increased the workpiece resonant response, but the resonant response did not significantly affect glove effectiveness. This study concluded that the use of VR gloves can help control vibration exposures of workers performing grinding of handheld workpieces.

[Expert consensus on the strategy and measures to interrupt the transmission of schistosomiasis in China].

Since 2015 when the transmission of schistosomiasis was controlled in China, the country has been moving towards elimination of schistosomiasis, with the surveillance-response as the main interventions for schistosomiasis control. During the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the transmission of schistosomiasis had been interrupted in four provinces of Sichuan, Jiangsu, Yunnan and Hubei and the prevalence of schistosomiasis has been at the historically lowest level in China. As a consequence, the goal set in The 13th Five-Year National Schistosomiasis Control Program in China is almost achieved. However, there are multiple challenges during the stage moving towards elimination of schistosomiasis in China, including the widespread distribution of intermediate host snails and complicated snail habitats, many types of sources of Schistosoma japonicum infections and difficulty in management of bovines and sheep, unmet requirements for the current schistosomiasis control program with the currently available tools, and vulnerable control achievements. During the 14th Five-Year period, it is crucial to consolidate the schistosomiasis control achievements and gradually solve the above difficulties, and critical to provide the basis for achieving the ultimate goal of elimination of schistosomiasis in China. Based on the past experiences from the national schistosomiasis control program and the challenges for schistosomiasis elimination in China, an expert consensus has been reached pertaining to the objectives, control strategy and measures for The 14th Five-Year National Schistosomiasis Control Program in China, so as to provide insights in to the development of The 14th Five-Year National Schistosomiasis Control Program in China.

[A comparative study of breast cancer mass screening and opportunistic screening in Chinese women].

Objective: To compare the population characteristics, the positive rate of screening, the detection rate of breast cancer, early diagnosis rate and the cost between the mass screening group and opportunistic screening group of breast cancer. Methods: This study is a prospective multicenter cohort study conducted from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016. The participants were enrolled for mass screening or opportunistic screening of breast cancer. After completing the questionnaire, all the participants received breast physical examination and breast ultrasound examination every year for 3 rounds by year. The participants' characteristics and screening results of the two groups were compared by χ2 test, Fisher exact test or Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Results: A total of 20 080 subjects were enrolled. In the mass screening group, 9 434 (100%), 8 111 (85.98%) and 3 940 (41.76%) cases completed the 3 rounds of screening, and 10 646 (100%), 6 209 (58.32%) and 2 988 (28.07%) cases in the opportunistic screening group, respectively. In the opportunistic screening group, the proportions of less than 3 months lactation (1 275/9 796 vs. 1 061/8 860, χ²=4.597, P=0.032), non-fertility (850/10 646 vs. 574/9 434, χ²=27.400, P<0.01), abortion history (6 384/10 646 vs. 5 062/9 434, χ²=81.232, P<0.01), postmenopausal (2 776/10 646 vs. 2 217/9 434, χ²=17.757, P<0.01), long-term oral contraceptives(>6 months) (171/10 646 vs. 77/9 434, χ²=25.593, P<0.01) and family history of breast cancer in first-degree relatives (464/10 646 vs. 236/9 434, χ²=51.257, P<0.01) were significantly higher than those in mass screening group. The positive rate of screening (514/10 646 vs. 128/9 434, χ²=194.736, P<0.01), the detection rate of breast cancer (158/10 646 vs. 13/9 434, χ²=107.374, P<0.01), and positive rate of biopsy (158/452 vs. 13/87, χ²=13.491, P<0.01) in the opportunistic screening group were significantly higher than those of the mass screening group. The early diagnosis rate of the mass screening group was significantly higher than the opportunistic screening group (10/12 vs. 66/141, χ²=5.902, P=0.015). The average cost for detecting each breast cancer case of the mass screening group was 215 038 CNY, which was 13.6 times of the opportunistic screening group (15 799 CNY/case). In the opportunistic screening group, the positive rate of biopsy in primary hospitals was significantly lower than that in large-volume hospitals (79/267 vs. 79/185, χ²=8.267, P=0.004), but there was no significant difference in the mass screening group (6/37 vs. 7/50, χ²=0.082, P=0.774). Conclusions: Breast cancer screening can improve early detection rate. Compared with the mass screening mode, the opportunistic screening mode has the advantages of higher proportion of high-risk factors, higher positive rate of screening, higher detection rate of breast cancer, higher positive rate of biopsy, and lower cost of screening. However, the early diagnosis rate of breast cancer of opportunistic screening is lower than that of mass screening. The positive rate of opportunistic screening in primary hospitals is lower than that of large-volume hospitals. The two screening modes have their own advantages and should be chosen according to local conditions of different regions in China.

[Current status of depression among workers in a petrochemical enterprise in Liaoning Province, China and related influencing factors].

Objective: To investigate the influencing factors for depression among workers in a petrochemical enterprise and the association of occupational stress and occupational environment with depression, and to provide a scientific basis for the improvement of mental health and the prevention and treatment of depression among workers in petrochemical enterprises. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in March 2018, and cluster sampling was used to select 1888 workers from a petrochemical enterprise in Liaoning Province, China for a questionnaire survey. A total of 1888 questionnaires were collected, among which there were 1521 usable questionnaires, with an effective recovery rate of 80.56%. The general status of the workers in this petrochemical enterprise was investigated, and Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) , Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) , and Perceived Work Environment (PWE) were used to evaluate depression, occupational stress, and occupational environment. Constituent ratio was used to describe the distribution of different demographic features, work conditions, and lifestyles among the workers in this petrochemical enterprise. One-way analysis of variance and the t-test were used to compare the scores of depressive tendency between the workers with different features. Pearson correlation analysis was used to investigate the correlation of occupational stress and occupational environment with depression. Multivariate hierarchical regression analysis was used to investigate the influencing factors for depression. Results: The score of depression tendency was 18.94±9.21 in the workers in this petrochemical enterprise, and the incidence rate of depression symptoms was 59.8% (909/1521) . The workers who were aged <35 years, lived alone or in widowhood, or had an income of ≤4000 yuan tended to have a high score of depression tendency. And ordinary workers, oil-refining workers, workers with night shift and non-fixed shift, and workers with a lack of physical exercise and low sleep quality tended to have a high score of depression tendency (P<0.05) . The dimensions of extrinsic and intrinsic efforts of occupational stress and severity of occupational environment were positively correlated with depression (r=0.254, 0.242, 0.274, P<0.01) . And the dimension of reward was negatively correlated with depression (r=-0.348, P<0.01) . The multivariate hierarchical regression analysis showed that occupational stress and occupational environment had a marked predictive effects on depression, with an explained variance of 18.4% and 12.1%, respectively. Conclusion: There is a high level of depression tendency among workers in petrochemical enterprises, and demographic features, work conditions, lifestyle, occupational stressors, and occupational environment factors are influencing factors for depression.

[Implications, spiritual characteristics and practical significance of Chinese schistosomiasis control culture].

The culture of schistosomiasis control is specific in the history of Chinese culture. Broadly speaking, the culture of schistosomiasis control is a summary of specific social mood, social consciousness and material culture created by Chinese populations during the progress of schistosomiasis control since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Narrowly speaking, the culture of schistosomiasis control is the spiritual culture that is jointly created and nurtured by schistosomiasis control workers since the founding of the People's Republic of China. The spiritual features of Chinese schistosomiasis control culture are characterized by the patriotism and care about the people, the matter-to-fact attitude, the pioneering and enterprising spirit, and the spirit of sacrifice and dedication. The ultimate goal of the research on the culture of schistosomiasis control is to facilitate the achievement of the strategic goal of Healthy China 2030 as scheduled, accelerate the progress towards elimination of schistosomiasis, and to promote the sustainable development of schistosomiasis control in China.

[Effect of integrated schistosomiasis control measures in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2019].

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of the integrated schistosomiasis control measures in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2019, so as to provide insights into the development of the schistosomiasis elimination strategy. METHODS: The integrated schistosomiasis control measures implemented by the health, agriculture, water resources, forestry, land and resources sectors were retrospectively collected in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2019, and the completion of each measure, cost of control measures, Schistosoma japonicum infections in humans and bovines, and snail status were analyzed each year. An index system for assessing the integrated schistosomiasis control effect was constructed using the Delphi method to calculate the integrated schistosomiasis control effect index. In addition, a cost-effect analysis was performed in terms of the decline in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in humans and bovines, areas with snails in inner embankments, and areas with infected snails. RESULTS: A total of 7 110 926 500 Yuan were invested into the integrated schistosomiasis control program of Hunan Province from 2004 to 2019. During the 16-year period, a total of 277 437.12 hm2 snail habitats received molluscicidal treatments, 6 927 230 person-times given expanded chemotherapy, 2 116 247 bovine-times given expanded chemotherapy, 954 850 harmless toilets built, 290 359 bovines fenced, 136 666 bovines eliminated, 141 905 machines used to replace bovines, 39 048.63 hm2 water lands improved as dry lands, 724.12 km irrigation regions improved, 3 994 300 populations covered with safe water, 191 102.89 hm2 forests planted and 38 535.27 hm2 lands leveled. The prevalence of S. japonicum infections was 4.29% in humans and 4.48% in bovines in Hunan Province in 2004, with 2 449.37 hm2 snail habitats in inner embankments and 3 423.74 hm2 infected snail areas. In 2019, the prevalence of S. japonicum infections reduced to 0 in both humans and bovines, and areas of snail habitats reduced to 540.92 hm2 (77.92% reductions), while the areas with infected snails reduced to 0. The overall integrated schistosomiasis control effect index appeared a tendency towards a rise over years since 2004, and the integrated schistosomiasis control effect index was 97.35 in 2019; the annual mean costs for a 1% reduction in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in 100 populations and 100 bovines were 70.11 Yuan and 4 204.78 Yuan, and the annual mean costs for a 1% reduction in the snail areas in inner embankments and infected snail areas were 2 010.20 Yuan and 1 298.09 Yuan, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The integrated control measures achieve remarkable effectiveness for schistosomiasis control in Hunan Province, with a remarkable decline in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in humans and bovines and great shrinking of snail areas in inner embankments and infected snail areas. Adequate fund investment is required to improve the integrated schistosomiasis control measures and consolidate the control achievements.

[Challenges and countermeasures of schistosomiasis control in Hunan Province in the new era].

This paper describes the current epidemic characteristics and endemic status of schistosomiasis, analyzes the main challenges of schistosomiasis control and proposes the emphasis and interventions for future schistosomiasis control activities in Hunan Province, so as to provide insights into the elimination of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province.

[Application of the exponential smoothing model and ARIMA model in prediction of the endemic situation of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province].

OBJECTIVE: To predict the changes in the prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infections in humans and livestock in Hunan Province using the exponential smoothing model and the ARIMA model. METHODS: The data pertaining to S. japonicum infections in humans and livestock in Hunan Province from 1957 to 2015 were collected, and the exponential smoothing model and the ARIMA model were created using the software Eviews and PASW Statistics 18.0. In addition, the effectiveness of these two models for the prediction of S. japonicum infections in humans and livestock in Hunan Province from 2016 to 2018 was evaluated. RESULTS: The exponential smoothing model and the ARIMA model had a high goodness of fit for prediction of S. japonicum infections in humans and livestock in Hunan Province from 1957 to 2015. There was a linear trend in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in humans and livestock in Hunan Province from 1957 to 2015. The prevalence of S. japonicum infections in humans predicted with the Brown's linear trend and the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in livestock predicted with the Holt's linear trend in Hunan Province from 2016 to 2018 fitted better the actual data than the ARIMA model; however, prediction of the ARIMA model indicated that the endemic situation of schistosomiasis remained at a low level in Hunan Province. CONCLUSIONS: At a low epidemic level, development of highly sensitive tools for monitoring schistosomiasis is urgently needed in Hunan Province to fit the current endemic situation, and the schistosomiasis control measures should be intensified to consolidate the control achievements.

[Endemic situation of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province in 2019].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the endemic situation of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province in 2019, so as to provide insights into the achievement of transmission interruption of schistosomiasis in the province in 2020. METHODS: The data pertaining to Schistosoma japonicum infections in humans and livestock and snail status were captured from Hunan Province in 2019 and analyzed. RESULTS: Schistosomiasis was endemic in 281 townships (towns) from 41 counties (districts) of 6 cities in Hunan Province by the end of 2019. A total of 991 900 persons received blood testing in Hunan Province in 2019, and 22 773 were positive for the blood testing, with sero-prevalence of 2.30%. All stool examinations were negative in 22 933 individuals detected. The high sero-prevalence was seen in Nanxian County, Anxiang County and Ziyang District. Currently, there were 5 034 cases with advanced schistosomiasis detected in Hunan Province, and they were predominantly identified in Yuanjiang City, Heshan District and Yueyang County. There were 44 963 bovines fenced in schistosomiasis-endemic villages in Hunan Province in 2019, which were predominantly distributed in Yuanjiang City, Hanshou County and Ziyang District, and no positives were detected in 1 996 bovines receiving blood testing or 20 684 bovines receiving stool examinations. In 2019, there were snail habitats of 1.73 billion m2 found in Hunan Province, which were mainly found in Yuanjiang City, Hanshou County and Yueyang County. CONCLUSIONS: The endemic situation of schistosomiasis further decreases in Hunan Province in 2019; however, there is still a risk of schistosomiasis transmission in local areas of the province.

[Progress of schistosomiasis control in Dongting Lake regions].

As an ancient parasitic disease, schistosomiasis has been endemic in Dongting Lake areas for more than 2 100 years. In the early 20th century, the first human case of schistosomiasis in China was reported in Dongting Lake areas, which was paid extensive attention. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, large-scale schistosomiasis control activities were launched promptly in Dongting Lake areas, and great successes have been achieved following the three stages of control efforts, including the snail control-based stage, synchronous chemotherapy for humans and livestock-based control stage and infectious source control-based control stage. In 2015, transmission control of schistosomiasis was achieved in Hunan Province. This paper comprehensively describes the discovery and control of schistosomiasis, analyzes the challenges for the current schistosomiasis control programs and proposes the emphasis for future control activities in Dongting Lake areas, so as to provide insights into the schistosomiasis control program in this area.